The infighting between Peronism and Kirchnerism plus the absence – for now– of a third moderate option in the centre places on the table one question: is there room for an outsider?
When talking about this kind of profile, we’re referring to somebody coming from beyond the traditional political system. Different from somebody already on the inside, even without much visibility (like former economy minister Hernán Lacunza) – this latter category would be more in the way of a “dark horse.” There, the spotlight also falls on current governors (Córdoba’s Martín Llaryora, Santa Fe’s Maximiliano Pullaro), ex-governors (Sergio Uñac, Gerardo Zamora) and outstanding members of Congress (Miguel Angel Pichetto), among others.
So why no take-off among the outsiders? Here factors both exogenous and endogenous to their personalities need to be taken into account.
The first major factor is timing: society has other things in mind stealing attention from Argentina’s possible presidential candidates and the election, 12 months down the road. The second cause is the Javier Milei phenomenon – it’s hard for anybody to be as novel and disruptive as the President, who has already exhausted the novelty. None of the outsiders have attributes that rapidly draw attention.
The experience with the libertarian lion (already 34 months in office) teaches us another lesson – his political errors and the shortfalls in his administration are leading an important part of the electorate to ponder if somebody with political experience is better than without. Ergo, the demand is running towards something new and fresh, but not improvised.
Beyond all that, let us recall that in 2023, 70 percent voted in the first round for the establishment’s candidates and only a minority gambled on the great outsider. Afterwards, the run-off is always another story.
Up to here, the exogenous factors, let us move onto the endogenous. Evangelical pastor Dante Gebel, the first to make a move, made a feeble début and his original sponsors are closer to throwing in the towel. Jorge Brito is a banker – something not very appealing in Argentina – and lacks charisma, while his management of River Plate does not favour him as Mauricio Macri’s experience at Boca Juniors did. Media empresario Daniel Haddad is, without doubt, the most politically skilled of this trio.
Let us see. Does this rule the trio out? No way – in this era of social networks, speed is exponential and short-term effects can turn a campaign around, leaving everybody dumbfounded, as is happening with increasing frequency worldwide. Otherwise just ask the Canadians, who enthroned their current prime minister in 45 days (thanks to Donald Trump).
Talking of dark horses, former San Juan Province governor Sergio Uñac has appeared on the scene recently. As he lacks any classic charisma (not an indispensable attribute in the 21st century), his launch needed some sort of surprise. With a hackneyed narrative showing no passion in a curious setting and closing the spot with his back to the spectator, it was an unfortunate introduction. Against the handicap enjoyed by Buenos Aires Province Governor Axel Kicillof and 2023 Peronist presidential candidate Sergio Massa, it does not augur too well.
With data on the table, most of the small world of politics, the business establishment, the media and consultants will tend to think that polarisation between the purples and the blues is inevitable. Sounds logical enough, but it is not time to close the field. When the demand exists, the supply can appear at any moment. Nevertheless, we can add a couple more factors against outsiders and dark horses: both in 2015 and in 2023 there appeared a third player to dislocate the map (Massa and Milei, respectively). Both shared two characteristics: 1) They had sat in Congress previously (2013 and 2021) – i.e,, they did not appear overnight; 2) They had enormous audacity and a will to take power. Looking ahead to 2027, there are no personalities of that kind at present.
These factors should brighten the life of the Milei siblings, because they continue to confirm the strategy of polarisation against the ’kuka’ Kirchnerites (although this idea is not exempt from “backfiring,” as happened to Macri). Despite the President’s public opinion approval ratings not bouncing back and the social mood not turning around, he has picked up several favourable news items recently: first, he is close to complying with the fiscal surplus percentage requested by the International Monetary Fund; second, the Central Bank is again accumulating dollars (with the first half of this month already doubling all September purchases); third, inflation wavers from the Fund is not a complication; fourth, 60 percent of the rollover of debt payment deadlines opted for dates after December 10, 2027; fifth, skilful manoeuvring in Congress to deactivate the opposition move against the famous deregulatory decree DNU 70; sixth, the eternal misfits (or infiltrators?) ruined the October 15 march on Congress, serving up the discourse against “the violent” on a tray.
True, idle industrial capacity is at a historic peak and the country risk rating is out of control. Furthermore, the “overkill” of the bazooka to face runs on the currency and the denials of the potential exit of Economy Minister Luis ‘Toto’ Caputo do not help. It seems incredible that the well-travelled Javier Gerardo Milei – fan of equations for everything – should believe that you can combat doubts with grandiloquent statements which the audience does not buy.
Another positive for the government is the failure of the group seeking to team up La Libertad Avanza and PRO. Between the government not wanting it to advance on the one side and the internal conflicts among the latter, the table is not served. Buenos Aires City Mayor Jorge Macri, in full electoral recovery, is allowing himself to mistrust his cousin’s manoeuvres and wants to make his own agreement with the purple people. Cristian Ritondo fears the trickery of his party’s chairman while deputy Fernando De Andreis gives his own version of the facts (because Mauricio does not trust Ritondo either). Meanwhile, Cabinet Chief Diego ‘Colo’ Santilli and the Menem cousins drink coffee and talk about the weather and football.
Left-wing Peronist deputy Juan Grabois winks in Kicillof’s direction, while some stray observer installs the possible existence of a ‘Ma-Ma’ ticket (Massa-Máximo Kirchner: Buenos Aires Province endogamy, fantastic for demobilising the inland). Hence the different Peronist tribes celebrating Loyalty Day separately.
The central character in the Arthur Miller play The Ride Down Mount Morgan, a bigamist, is said to be faithful – faithful to himself.
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