News of Marcelo J. García

Marcelo J. García

Political analyst and Director for the Americas for the Horizon Engage political risk consultancy firm.

A big win in midterms would be bad news for Milei

20-07-2025 19:05 A huge victory might encourage Milei and his team to stick to the peso appreciation which is both keeping inflation down and pleasing the upper and high-middle classes of Argentina.

by Marcelo J. García

ANALYSING ARGENTINA

Governors show lone-wolf Milei their teeth – will they bite?

12-07-2025 06:59 Wrestling with Argentina’s powerful provincial leaders is more likely to hinder Milei than help him achieve his goals.

by Marcelo J. García

Analysing Argentina

Milei’s Argentina: A tale of two pockets

28-06-2025 07:33 There is a “dollarised” Argentina doing well and a “pesofied” Argentina that is struggling.

by Marcelo J. García

ANALYSING ARGENTINA

Will Milei be haunted by the ghost of Cristina?

21-06-2025 06:07 The arrest and jailing of a political opponent may be good news for incumbents in the short term, but nothing good results in the medium to long term.

by Marcelo J. García

ANALYSING ARGENTINA

What is a Supreme Court for?

14-06-2025 06:45 Cristina was a fading political star long before Argentina’s Supreme Court confirmed her conviction sentence.

by Marcelo J. García

Analysing Argentina

Milei’s (unnecessary) enemies are piling up

07-06-2025 06:46 Argentina's President is not only failing to make friends, he is accumulating too many enemies.

by Marcelo J. García

Analysing Argentina

Milei chooses to ignore emerging consensuses

31-05-2025 06:23 With less than five months to the midterm vote, nothing seems to be standing in the way of a good result for the government. But Milei 2025 should already start thinking about Milei 2027

by Marcelo J. García

Analysing Argentina

A whirlwind of votes, a black hole of dollars

24-05-2025 06:06 Argentines know their history, and they have enjoyed spending sprees in the past at the cost of the Central Bank, which invariably ended in economic catastrophe: in the late 1970s, in the 1990s, in the mid- and late 2000s. Milei will have to work hard to convince them that things will not be as they were.

by Marcelo J. García

Analysing Argentina

Re-election in 2027? It’s Milei’s to lose

17-05-2025 06:53 Milei has at hand all the variables that will determine his future. Winning or losing will depend on how he handles them. The more pragmatic and less ideological, the better.

by Marcelo J. García

ANALYSING ARGENTINA

Fernández de Kirchner’s present points to Milei’s future

10-05-2025 07:55 Like Milei today, Fernández de Kirchner and Macri once believed their power was unlimited and their future bright. The way they engaged with their adversaries only came back later to haunt them.

by Marcelo J. García

ANALYSING ARGENTINA

Milei’s Macri mirror

03-05-2025 07:14 Javier Milei and Luis Caputo want the economy to be booming when the country goes to vote in October. The question is how much it will cost them – and the country.

by Marcelo J. García

Pope Francis and Argentina's recent presidents.

Analysing Argentina

The shepherd who lost his country

26-04-2025 05:00 Argentina electing Milei, just as an Argentine was running the Vatican on a unifying message, is as if John Paul II had seen his Polish compatriots vote for a version of Joseph Stalin, rather than Lech Wałęsa.

by Marcelo J. García

Analysing Argentina

Milei and the bicycle temptation

19-04-2025 06:00 The Milei government is confident it can make it to the midterm elections in October without major volatility. But this relative calm — won by force of debt — should not obscure the storm that was brewing before the cash injection.

by Marcelo J. García

Analysing Argentina

Careful Javier, the ‘caste’ smells blood

12-04-2025 05:29 Legislators who had until now been cooperative or aloof toward confrontation with Milei are changing their tune, in line with what they hear from their constituencies.

by Marcelo J. García

Analysing Argentina

Can Cristina Fernández de Kirchner be the next Donald Trump?

05-04-2025 06:13 It is difficult to imagine a Fernández de Kirchner comeback à la Trump. Or rather, her comeback has already happened, no matter how much she denies it

by Marcelo J. García

Milei rides into space on Musk's SpaceX rocket.

Analysing Argentina

Will Elon Musk’s plumber pay for Milei’s trips abroad?

29-03-2025 06:11 There is reason behind the IMF’s decision to throw its weight behind President Milei, which means partnering with his political objectives too.

by Marcelo J. García

ANALYSING ARGENTINA

Autumn is coming for Javier Milei

22-03-2025 07:41 Last week, we discussed how an electoral agreement with the governor of Chaco signalled a possible pattern. This week, Chaco Governor Leandro Zdero received a 120-billion-peso transfer from the federal government. Just don’t tell the IMF.

by Marcelo J. García

Chaco Province Governor Leandro Zdero and President Javier Milei.

POLITICS

Chaco and Milei’s electoral strategy for October

15-03-2025 07:36 Chaco shows that Milei is willing to seal alliances with the local political establishment — a.k.a. “the caste” — as it best suits them. And the Casa Rosada has leverage in this negotiation with the governors: cash.

by Marcelo J. García

Presidential Chief-of-Staff Karina Milei flew this week to Canada to lead the country’s delegation to one of the largest mining shows on Earth.

ANALYSING ARGENTINA

Exit rigging, enter RIGI

08-03-2025 06:00 Argentina has, many times in its recent past, seen long-term sustainability ruined by short-term objectives.

by Marcelo J. García

Analysing Argentina

Flooding the zone might drown the Milei administration

01-03-2025 05:24 The fragility of Argentina’s economy demands sobriety and steadiness — something that zone-flooders may lack as they attempt to sow confusion.

by Marcelo J. García

Analysing Argentina

Milei’s long honeymoon is over, what happens next?

22-02-2025 06:32 For the first time since December 2023, Milei and his people lost control of the narrative … more than ever, Milei now relies on the success of his economic programme.

by Marcelo J. García

ANALYSING ARGENTINA

Cavallo, Milei and the elephant in the room

15-02-2025 06:08 Besides numbers, markets measure moods and tones. And the tone they got from President Javier Milei this week may not have been reassuring.

by Marcelo J. García

Analysing Argentina

Can Kicillof break the spell?

08-02-2025 06:11 If the current political trajectory stands, Kicillof would face an uphill battle … but Argentina has shown in recent years that "impossible" is not in the local political dictionary.

by Marcelo J. García

Analysing Argentina

Macri is fighting for his life – he will lose

01-02-2025 08:48 Mauricio Macri is making a desperate attempt to keep his political structure alive — and under his wing.

by Marcelo J. García

Analysing Argentina

Milei’s learning curve

25-01-2025 06:48 Milei’s learning curve should take note from his predecessors: too much orthodoxy or unorthodoxy leads to trouble.

by Marcelo J. García

Analysing Argentina

Latin America ducks and covers for Trump – except Milei

18-01-2025 06:37 With expected good access to the new White House, it will be up to Milei and his team to distinguish personal ideology from national interest and act accordingly.

by Marcelo J. García

Analysing Argentina

Main Street and Milei Street

11-01-2025 06:26 any process of economic transformation, like the one President Javier Milei is trying to implement, will have winners and losers.

by Marcelo J. García

Analysing Argentina

May you live in happy times, Mr President

04-01-2025 07:54 Much of this success hinges on the Pax at the exchange rate market. Prices in Argentina dance to the tune of one price: that of the US dollar.

by Marcelo J. García

ANALYSING ARGENTINA

Milei, Reagan and the 20% enemy rule

21-12-2024 05:07 President Milei seems to be inverting Ronald Reagan’s equation – as in, disagree 20 percent of the time with me, and you are 80 percent my enemy.

by Marcelo J. García

Analysing Argentina

Year one: Milei surpassed expectations, but now faces high ones

07-12-2024 06:51 The question of whether Milei will be an anecdote or a new force that defines an era will largely begin to be answered in 2025. First and foremost, it will depend on the economy, and second — but by no means less important — on the midterm elections in October.

by Marcelo J. García

Analysing Argentina

Milei and nothing but Milei

30-11-2024 05:12 If the opposition wants to challenge the President, the best they could do is to try something radically different. This is exactly what Milei did when he launched his political career.

by Marcelo J. García

ANALYSING ARGENTINA

Milei and his Doppelganger

23-11-2024 06:00 There may be two Javier Mileis. One lives on Planet Earth and engages with people he said he loathed, and another fights fantasy battles in a parallel reality on social media. Which one will prevail?

by Marcelo J. García

Analysing Argentina

Milei, in the best of all possible worlds

16-11-2024 05:00 Everywhere he looks, Javier Milei sees good news, which he takes as confirmation that he has chosen the right path.

by Marcelo J. García

ANALYSING ARGENTINA

Welcome to the New Political Order

09-11-2024 06:01 Trump’s victory and the Brexit referendum in 2016 marked the first significant political manifestations of a change of order. Trump’s impressive comeback this week appears to solidify it further. The next question is where President Javier Milei fits into this puzzle.

by Marcelo J. García

Analysing Argentina

Milei’s magical thinking about a Trump victory

02-11-2024 07:38 Argentina — or Latin America, for that matter — will not be an immediate priority for any incoming US administration, though Milei may leverage his ideological rapport with a potential President Trump.

by Marcelo J. García

ANALYSING ARGENTINA

The Caputos spread their tentacles over the Mileis

26-10-2024 05:37 Not so long ago, two Caputos in Milei's inner circle seemed one too many. But now, Santiago and Luis Caputo are working closely in tandem.

by Marcelo J. García

ANALYSING ARGENTINA

Milei the Great or Milei the Footnote?

19-10-2024 06:44 The problems Argentina faces are too big and too enduring for anyone to solve alone, especially when alienating much of the rest of the world.

by Marcelo J. García

Analysing Argentina

Milei’s deserved but premature celebration

12-10-2024 06:09 If two highly sensitive issues like pensions and universities fail to gather the two-thirds majority needed to overturn vetoes, President Milei can rest assured that his executive powers will remain intact for another year.

by Marcelo J. García

Cristina Fernández de Kirchner: on the verge of a comeback?

ANALYSING ARGENTINA

Will Cristina Fernández de Kirchner attempt a comeback?

05-10-2024 06:21 As Otto von Bismarck famously said, “politics is the art of the possible.”

by Marcelo J. García

ANALYSING ARGENTINA

No future for Milei

28-09-2024 06:33 President Milei’s first speech at the UN General Assembly was the latest example of the many fruitless symbolic battles that Argentina’s 21st-century Don Quixote chooses to fight to feed his foundational ego trip.

by Marcelo J. García

ANALYSING ARGENTINA

Milei’s Bermuda Triangle

21-09-2024 06:31 Milei’s political future lies within a triangle defined by inflation, approval ratings, and unemployment.

by Marcelo J. García

ANALYSING ARGENTINA

Javier Milei in the real world of the Lilliputians

14-09-2024 05:51 There may be nothing more “caste” than a group of deputies who vote one way one day and another way a few weeks later. But Milei knows that some elements of the caste are more useful than others, depending on which side of the political equation they fall.

by Marcelo J. García

ANALYSING ARGENTINA

Decisions Milei refuses to make

07-09-2024 05:52 Milei will eventually pay the political price for the decisions he fails to make today. His current popularity, buoyed by the perception that recession is the lesser evil compared to rampant inflation, won’t last forever.

by Marcelo J. García

ANALYSING ARGENTINA

Milei fighting with himself

17-08-2024 06:40 The scandal surrounding former president Alberto Fernández and his ex-partner, former first lady Fabiola Yáñez, seems to confirm Milei’s campaign truism that the country’s politicians were not only inept but also morally bankrupt.

by Marcelo J. García

ANALYSING ARGENTINA

Milei’s mirror: Ireland or Nigeria?

10-08-2024 05:37 The RIGI scheme places Argentina closer to a category that experts call an enclave economy, one in which some sectors boom but the larger public is not necessarily attached to the benefits.

by Marcelo J. García

ANALYSING ARGENTINA

A tale of two economists

03-08-2024 14:08 The name RIGI is notably similar to the LNG bill sponsored by the Peronists last year: Regime for Major Investment Incentives.

by Marcelo J. García

Javier Milei, Karina Milei and Victoria Villaruel.

ANALYSING ARGENTINA

International media dig into the B-side of the Milei promise

27-07-2024 14:27 Little by little, the news about Argentina in the world’s business capitals is becoming less shiny than it was a few months ago.

by Marcelo J. García

ANALYSING ARGENTINA

Milei’s useless fight against gravity

23-07-2024 15:05 Milei has two economic jobs: lowering inflation and getting the economy going. So far, he is halfway through the first goal and nowhere with the second. All eyes are on Economy Minister Luis Caputo, whose job will be on the line if this latest scheme fails.

by Marcelo J. García

ANALYSING ARGENTINA

What if Milei is wrong about the economy?

13-07-2024 07:50 Hard currency is the Achilles’ heel of the Milei programme, as it was for his predecessors in office.

by Marcelo J. García

Analysing Argentina

Milei now needs to fly domestic

06-07-2024 05:31 Provincial governors are getting Milei’s message: that they are largely on their own now and need to adapt.

by Marcelo J. García