News of Marcelo J. García

Marcelo J. García

Marcelo J. García

Political analyst and Director for the Americas for the Horizon Engage political risk consultancy firm.

PRO puppies?

Analysing Argentina

Milei leans on the caste to seek re-election

04-07-2026 00:32 The arrival of Diego Santilli as Cabinet Chief signals a pragmatism that is both the result of a lack of trustworthy people in the ranks and Milei’s acknowledgment that he needs yet another dose of “caste” to align the means with the goals of his administration.

by Marcelo J. García

Milei off a winning wave?

Analysing Argentina

Dogmatism, clumsiness force Milei off a winning wave

20-06-2026 05:43 What can stop Milei? The answer is very simple: his programmatic extremism and political clumsiness.

by Marcelo J. García

Pesos or patria?

ANALYSING ARGENTINA

Choose your own Argentina

30-05-2026 05:27 Depending on which data you look at, you get a different Argentina. The main political question for the next year is whether the two Argentinas will begin to converge or drift further apart.

by Marcelo J. García

Manuel and Javier treading water.

ANALYSING ARGENTINA

Does Milei want a second term?

16-05-2026 05:57 The good news is that the vote for his re-election is still 17 months away; the bad news is that, at this rate, he might not win.

by Marcelo J. García

Dante Gebel.

ANALYSING ARGENTINA

Will the Peronists resort to God in 2027?

25-04-2026 06:37 Dante Gebel is testing the waters to see if he can break Argentina’s dichotomy and appeal to voters from a spiritual rather than a rational angle.

by Marcelo J. García

Wanted: an agenda for Milei.

ANALYSING ARGENTINA

Wanted: A governing agenda for Javier Milei

11-04-2026 07:44 A perception of dissonance between what the wider world and the public here see of Milei and his government is bad news for the administration.

by Marcelo J. García

Vaca Muerta, Argentina's dead cow, will outlast Milei.

ANALYSING ARGENTINA

With or without Milei

28-03-2026 05:55 Milei has given Vaca Muerta a push, but growth there precedes and will outlive his Presidency. It is arguably the only consensus policy the country has had for the past decade and a half. Its development momentum will not stop anytime soon.

by Marcelo J. García

Big mouth Milei.

Analysing Argentina

Milei’s regime change drive

07-03-2026 06:43 Regime change is easier said than done.

by Marcelo J. García

Milei the market valentine.

ANALYSING ARGENTINA

Be my market valentine, Milei

14-02-2026 02:09 Milei risks being carried away by ideology, opening the economy too much and too fast, over-appreciating the peso (again) and leaving too many sectors hurt at home.

by Marcelo J. García

Between a Rocca and a hard place.

Analysing Argentina

Between a Rocca and a hard place

31-01-2026 06:34 Screaming that a company should go bankrupt because its quotation was 40% higher than an Indian firm’s is wonky politics for a president.

by Marcelo J. García

LatAm on the Run.

Analysing Argentina

LatAm on the run (from Trump)

17-01-2026 07:04 Latin American leaders are scrambling to adapt to the new reality in which the United States can impose its will on the hemisphere.

by Marcelo J. García

Milei, Venezuela and Vaca Muerta.

Analysing Argentina

Venezuela: Is Milei on the right or the wrong side of history?

10-01-2026 06:51 A Venezuelan comeback, especially if it entails large investments in rebuilding infrastructure, would be a direct regional competitor for Vaca Muerta, a development that has improved its production efficiency but still needs to streamline costs.

by Marcelo J. García

Milei X.

ANALYSING ARGENTINA

Cheers – here’s to a more ‘caste-like’ Milei in 2026

26-12-2025 07:25 Looking ahead too much to 2027 risks overlooking 2026. Milei needs to take a step-by-step approach to his government.

by Marcelo J. García

Milei on the march.

Analysing Argentina

Wide open field for Milei

20-12-2025 07:44 A libertarian but not a “libertidiot,” as he likes to say, Milei seems to have picked security rather than risk for the new stage of his administration. It is a good choice.

by Marcelo J. García

The tectonic fracture of Argentina’s economy.

ANALYSING ARGENTINA

The tectonic fracture of Argentina’s economy

29-11-2025 05:20 This is a game-changer for Argentina’s economy, anticipated for years and slowly happening. Milei has contributed to this outcome, but it is not solely the result of his actions. He is, however, the President that – if he does things right – will benefit from it.

by Marcelo J. García

Milei (finally) divides to conquer.

ANALYSING ARGENTINA

Milei (finally) divides to conquer

22-11-2025 06:40 In his first two years in office, Milei united rather than divided the opposition. His all-out attack on “the caste” earned him many enemies and virtually no friends. But everyone likes a winner.

by Marcelo J. García

Z-man.

ANALYSING ARGENTINA

Mamdani, Milei, Trump and Perón

08-11-2025 06:44 The voracity for US dollars will sooner rather than later force Milei to seek another bailout, so he should wish that the Mamdani threat stays only at that and that Trump remains mighty for the foreseeable future.

by Marcelo J. García

Javier Milei superstar.

ANALYSING ARGENTINA

Javier Milei superstar

01-11-2025 06:40 Winning the election saved the administration from making immediate and desperate corrections from a position of weakness, but it does not save them from making changes altogether.

by Marcelo J. García

Reinvention?

Analysing Argentina

The midterms are over – can Milei reinvent himself?

25-10-2025 06:17 For more than a year, Milei invested too much energy and resources in an election that was not structurally designed to change much of his future. He only seems to have come to understand that in recent weeks, when it became clear that La Libertad Avanza will not turn into a hegemonic force overnight.

by Marcelo J. García

Yankees come home with Milei.

ANALYSING ARGENTINA

Yankees come home

18-10-2025 06:26 Exactly 20 years ago next month, Washington silently retreated from the region. Now it’s coming back, in full swing.

by Marcelo J. García

Casa Rosada or Casa Blanca?

ANALYSING ARGENTINA

What comes after Javier Milei?

04-10-2025 06:22 The six governors who form the Provincias Unidas group are working on the assumption that Milei will not have a second term, just like his two predecessors. The question is what comes next?

by Marcelo J. García

Chainsaw of state cutbacks.

ANALYSING ARGENTINA

How many more rabbits can Milei pull out?

27-09-2025 06:38 Markets don’t vote, at least not on election day. The fate of the Milei programme will be determined by what the government does from now on.

by Marcelo J. García

Wake Milei up when September ends.

Analysing Argentina

Wake Milei up when September ends

20-09-2025 06:25 Both the economy and the politics of the country are telling President Milei he cannot fly solo anymore.

by Marcelo J. García

Pressure on Milei.

ANALYSING ARGENTINA

The end of Milei’s single-issue government

13-09-2025 06:30 Until now, the Milei administration has been a single-issue government, working under the notion that a fiscal surplus will fix the country’s entire problems. The public does not seem to be OK with that anymore.

by Marcelo J. García

Lion tamer? Not so much.

ANALYSING ARGENTINA

The endogenous crises of Javier Milei

06-09-2025 07:13 The crises the government is suffering from are endogenous – their origin lies in Milei and his team’s decision to fly solo with their economic and political strategies.

by Marcelo J. García

Milei siblings got that sinking feeling.

Analysing Argentina

Forget about October, what matters is the day after

30-08-2025 06:59 After the elections, Milei will not have the benefit of the doubt anymore. Expectations will be higher, just as reality might get tougher.

by Marcelo J. García

White flag to polarisation.

Analysing Argentina

How can the new centrists kill polarisation?

23-08-2025 07:01 The centre might be the only viable solution for a country like Argentina, but who would vote for a dull, rationality-driven politician when you have the angry mob?

by Marcelo J. García

Can oil and mining save Argentina?

Analysing Argentina

The (wrong?) assumption that energy and mining will save Argentina

09-08-2025 06:35 President Javier Milei’s economic programme relies heavily on the prospects of Argentina massively increasing its exports in the coming years. But projections work better on paper than in reality.

by Marcelo J. García

The Milei siblings

ANALYSING ARGENTINA

Milei at a crossroads: between isolation and the art of the deal

04-08-2025 17:59 The first decision is whether to seek alliances with provincial governors, who in broad terms agree with his economic programme, or fly solo.

by Marcelo J. García

Milei, Lamelas, and US flag over pink house.

ANALYSING ARGENTINA

Milei, Lamelas and the politics of evil

28-07-2025 15:24 Governors who used to oversee economic no-go areas, whose only hope used to be getting assistance or even charity, are now empowered by growing national and international business interest in their regions.

by Marcelo J. García

Big win for Milei?

ANALYSING ARGENTINA

A big win in midterms would be bad news for Milei

20-07-2025 19:05 A huge victory might encourage Milei and his team to stick to the peso appreciation which is both keeping inflation down and pleasing the upper and high-middle classes of Argentina.

by Marcelo J. García

Milei and the wolves.

ANALYSING ARGENTINA

Governors show lone-wolf Milei their teeth – will they bite?

12-07-2025 06:59 Wrestling with Argentina’s powerful provincial leaders is more likely to hinder Milei than help him achieve his goals.

by Marcelo J. García

A tale of two pockets.

Analysing Argentina

Milei’s Argentina: A tale of two pockets

28-06-2025 07:33 There is a “dollarised” Argentina doing well and a “pesofied” Argentina that is struggling.

by Marcelo J. García

Will Milei be haunted by the ghost of Cristina?

ANALYSING ARGENTINA

Will Milei be haunted by the ghost of Cristina?

21-06-2025 06:07 The arrest and jailing of a political opponent may be good news for incumbents in the short term, but nothing good results in the medium to long term.

by Marcelo J. García

What is a Supreme Court for?

ANALYSING ARGENTINA

What is a Supreme Court for?

14-06-2025 06:45 Cristina was a fading political star long before Argentina’s Supreme Court confirmed her conviction sentence.

by Marcelo J. García

Milei’s (unnecessary) enemies are piling up.

Analysing Argentina

Milei’s (unnecessary) enemies are piling up

07-06-2025 06:46 Argentina's President is not only failing to make friends, he is accumulating too many enemies.

by Marcelo J. García

Milei goes against the grain.

Analysing Argentina

Milei chooses to ignore emerging consensuses

31-05-2025 06:23 With less than five months to the midterm vote, nothing seems to be standing in the way of a good result for the government. But Milei 2025 should already start thinking about Milei 2027

by Marcelo J. García

Milei and Caputo: Burning dollars.

Analysing Argentina

A whirlwind of votes, a black hole of dollars

24-05-2025 06:06 Argentines know their history, and they have enjoyed spending sprees in the past at the cost of the Central Bank, which invariably ended in economic catastrophe: in the late 1970s, in the 1990s, in the mid- and late 2000s. Milei will have to work hard to convince them that things will not be as they were.

by Marcelo J. García

Milei: running into himself?

Analysing Argentina

Re-election in 2027? It’s Milei’s to lose

17-05-2025 06:53 Milei has at hand all the variables that will determine his future. Winning or losing will depend on how he handles them. The more pragmatic and less ideological, the better.

by Marcelo J. García

Masking Milei.

ANALYSING ARGENTINA

Fernández de Kirchner’s present points to Milei’s future

10-05-2025 07:55 Like Milei today, Fernández de Kirchner and Macri once believed their power was unlimited and their future bright. The way they engaged with their adversaries only came back later to haunt them.

by Marcelo J. García

Segundo Tiempo

ANALYSING ARGENTINA

Milei’s Macri mirror

03-05-2025 07:14 Javier Milei and Luis Caputo want the economy to be booming when the country goes to vote in October. The question is how much it will cost them – and the country.

by Marcelo J. García

Pope Francis and Argentina's recent presidents.

Analysing Argentina

The shepherd who lost his country

26-04-2025 05:00 Argentina electing Milei, just as an Argentine was running the Vatican on a unifying message, is as if John Paul II had seen his Polish compatriots vote for a version of Joseph Stalin, rather than Lech Wałęsa.

by Marcelo J. García

On yer bike Javi.

Analysing Argentina

Milei and the bicycle temptation

19-04-2025 06:00 The Milei government is confident it can make it to the midterm elections in October without major volatility. But this relative calm — won by force of debt — should not obscure the storm that was brewing before the cash injection.

by Marcelo J. García

Cracked Javier.

Analysing Argentina

Careful Javier, the ‘caste’ smells blood

12-04-2025 05:29 Legislators who had until now been cooperative or aloof toward confrontation with Milei are changing their tune, in line with what they hear from their constituencies.

by Marcelo J. García

Can Cristina Fernández de Kirchner be the next Donald Trump?

Analysing Argentina

Can Cristina Fernández de Kirchner be the next Donald Trump?

05-04-2025 06:13 It is difficult to imagine a Fernández de Kirchner comeback à la Trump. Or rather, her comeback has already happened, no matter how much she denies it

by Marcelo J. García

Milei rides into space on Musk's SpaceX rocket.

Analysing Argentina

Will Elon Musk’s plumber pay for Milei’s trips abroad?

29-03-2025 06:11 There is reason behind the IMF’s decision to throw its weight behind President Milei, which means partnering with his political objectives too.

by Marcelo J. García

The Emperor in Autumn.

ANALYSING ARGENTINA

Autumn is coming for Javier Milei

22-03-2025 07:41 Last week, we discussed how an electoral agreement with the governor of Chaco signalled a possible pattern. This week, Chaco Governor Leandro Zdero received a 120-billion-peso transfer from the federal government. Just don’t tell the IMF.

by Marcelo J. García

Chaco Province Governor Leandro Zdero and President Javier Milei.

Chaco and Milei’s electoral strategy for October

15-03-2025 07:36 Chaco shows that Milei is willing to seal alliances with the local political establishment — a.k.a. “the caste” — as it best suits them. And the Casa Rosada has leverage in this negotiation with the governors: cash.

by Marcelo J. García

Presidential Chief-of-Staff Karina Milei flew this week to Canada to lead the country’s delegation to one of the largest mining shows on Earth.

ANALYSING ARGENTINA

Exit rigging, enter RIGI

08-03-2025 06:00 Argentina has, many times in its recent past, seen long-term sustainability ruined by short-term objectives.

by Marcelo J. García

Flooding the zone.

Analysing Argentina

Flooding the zone might drown the Milei administration

01-03-2025 05:24 The fragility of Argentina’s economy demands sobriety and steadiness — something that zone-flooders may lack as they attempt to sow confusion.

by Marcelo J. García