News of Marcelo J. Garcia

Marcelo J. Garcia

Most of the burden now falls on the office of Economy Minister Martín Guzmán, whom the president has given exclusive faculties in his economic Cabinet to lead – and speak in public about – the debt issue.

Eight weeks that will settle the next four years

01-02-2020 08:50 Argentina’s leadership finds common ground when it seems to be too late, arguably without noticing that crisis arrives after an earlier lack of accord, guided by automatic bickering.

by Marcelo J. Garcia

The Fernández government wants to get along well with Washington, but without an automatic alliance.

NEW ERA IN ARGENTINA

Back to the (Western) World

25-01-2020 11:34 At policy level the administration is seeking to cultivate ties with the US on the issues that Trump White House most cares about.

by Marcelo J. Garcia

Unlike his two non-Italian predecessors, John Paul II and Benedict, who rushed to go back home in the first year of their papacy, Francis has not set foot on Argentina. Why hasn’t he? And will he?

NEW ERA IN ARGENTINA

Will Alberto bring Francis back home?

18-01-2020 12:40 The Pope wields considerable influence over many local leaders, most notably on social movements who represent the unemployed and are connected with grassroots Catholic priests.

by Marcelo J. Garcia

The president has decided to give a little “Robin Hood” lustre to his first few weeks in office.

NEW ERA IN ARGENTINA

Alberto’s ‘Robin Hood’ approach offers clues for the future

11-01-2020 10:16 On debt, the government hopes to get a grace period of four years in an ideal scenario, but given the ambiguous willingness that IMF staffers and creditors seem to be showing, it is likely to get closer to two – if things go relatively well.

by Marcelo J. Garcia

This week, the president gave two lengthy radio interviews in which he used his public word to establish the political terrain for his leadership.

NEW ERA IN ARGENTINA

Building a centre by sheer force of word

04-01-2020 09:23 A president should craft his words carefully and use them with conscious moderation, knowing that any word that comes out of a head of state’s mouth is virtually seen as policy.

by Marcelo J. Garcia

The president likely starts his first calendar year at the country’s highest political chair with a wishlist of things he would like to achieve.

2020: THE YEAR AHEAD

Alberto’s New Year’s resolutions

28-12-2019 09:56 What exactly is on Alberto Fernández’s New Year’s resolution list for 2020?

by Marcelo J. Garcia

Once the new bill is published in the Boletín Oficial, the government will have 180 days to, for instance, revise contracts and rates in the politically sensitive gas and electricity sectors.

NEW ERA IN ARGENTINA

Around the crisis in 180 days

21-12-2019 10:49 With extra powers and an economic Cabinet that politically responds to his directives, the president would be able to claim the credit of success – but he would also have to pay the full price of failure.

by Marcelo J. Garcia

The news is that this is no news at all. Argentina was officially declared in an emergency after the 2001 debt default.

ARGENTINA'S NEW ERA

A permanent state of emergency

14-12-2019 10:40 Guzmán’s unexpected appointment at the helm of the hot-potato ministry strikes a delicate balance between the economic views of the president and those of the vicepresident, Cristina Fernández de Kirchner.

by Marcelo J. Garcia

Fernández has given some signals about what he wants to do with the country’s debt: kick payment as far ahead down the road as possible in order to give Argentina time to grow again.

TRANSITION 2019

What will Alberto Fernandez do in his first 100 days?

07-12-2019 10:21 Three days out from his inauguration and following the announcement of his Cabinet yesterday, Alberto Fernández can now look ahead to his first 100 days in office, which will have one main driver: averting a debt default.

by Marcelo J. Garcia

So far, Fernández seems to be acting on the assumption that most of the things he’ll face resemble those he faced before.

TRANSITION 2019

Alberto’s dilemma: Is this 2001 or 2003?

30-11-2019 09:37 The line is classic 2003. Néstor would tell anybody who would listen back then that “dead debtors don’t pay,” in what was a neat strategy to negotiate better terms for the country’s defaulted situation.

by Marcelo J. Garcia

Argentina will soon be entering its third year of recession. The economy contracted 1.6 percent in 2018, will shrink a further 3.2 percent in 2019 and is likely to contract at least an extra 1.9 percent in 2020.

TRANSITION 2019

The risks of fragmented polarisation

16-11-2019 09:33 Depending on how the economy features in the coming months and how the coalitions manage to sustain complex internal balances, polarisation could soon crack into fragmentation, with unpredictable political consequences.

by Marcelo J. Garcia

The political schism that has popularly become known here as ’la grieta’ is back (if it was ever gone) and yes, here to stay.

ELECTION 2019

Welcome back, ‘la grieta.’ We didn’t miss you.

09-11-2019 10:49 The blame game will only deepen the crack that divides the political aisles.

by Marcelo J. Garcia

On show was an unprecedented Peronist coalition of at least three factions, with loyalties and alliances seemingly ready to mutate, depending on random circumstances.

CAMPAIGN WATCH

Can Alberto’s tightrope act work?

02-11-2019 11:27 The president-elect will be walking a tightrope between convincing suspicious markets and making good on at least some of his promises to voters.

by Marcelo J. Garcia

The 2019 transition is more dramatic than symbols can get.

CAMPAIGN WATCH

The day after tomorrow

26-10-2019 11:42 A storm is brewing again in Argentina and the leadership are not getting the public ready for it.

by Marcelo J. Garcia

What do presidential candidates really offer?

CAMPAIGN WATCH

Do Argentina’s candidates care about the wider world around them?

19-10-2019 12:27 A navel-gazing campaign and the overwhelmingly local political discussion has prevented the main candidates and their teams from following the larger world picture around them.

by Marcelo J. Garcia

The debate is good news in that it will bring a sense of normalcy to a country in which normal is the exception.

CAMPAIGN WATCH

A non-debate for a non-campaign

12-10-2019 09:43 With that strategy in mind, Macri is unlikely to be on the offensive too much when he faces Fernández in the city of Santa Fe tomorrow evening. Faced with the choice of taking a risk and trying to win a few extra votes or consolidating his support base more safely, the president will probably go for the latter.

by Marcelo J. Garcia

CAMPAIGN WATCH

Yes, we can. But can we?

05-10-2019 10:59 The political world upside down: an incumbent promises the impossible, the challenger urges caution.

by Marcelo J. Garcia

Campaign watch

The IMF jumps ship – Argentina is officially on its own

28-09-2019 03:59 Timing is everything in diplomacy and business... Lipton’s carefully chosen words sounded like a bureaucratic version of revenge on a silver platter.

by Marcelo J. Garcia

CAMPAIGN WATCH

A campaign without much to promise

21-09-2019 09:51 Although Macri is anticipating some of the tough calls in order to save his own government (such as the capital and exchange control rules), the incumbent is also laying some ticking time-bombs along the way, like tax deductions and the freeze on fuels and utility rates.

by Marcelo J. Garcia

CAMPAIGN WATCH

Macri and Fernández have good reason to cooperate

13-09-2019 23:48 If he wants to have a future in politics, namely lead the opposition or even dream of a comeback à la Chile’s Sebastián Piñera, Macri needs to deliver an orderly end to his traumatic first administration.

by Marcelo J. Garcia

Campaign watch

Argentina becomes a bundle of nerves

07-09-2019 00:55 At the end of the line the country has always faced the same trauma: more inflation, devaluation, recession and, eventually, default.

by Marcelo J. Garcia

Elections 2019: Campaign watch

Macri should drop out of the presidential campaign

31-08-2019 00:42 More people might actually vote for Macri if they see he has made a political sacrifice for the common good.

by Marcelo J. Garcia

News of Marcelo J. Garcia

Marcelo J. Garcia

Eight weeks that will settle the next four years

Back to the (Western) World

Will Alberto bring Francis back home?

Alberto’s ‘Robin Hood’ approach offers clues for the future

Building a centre by sheer force of word

Alberto’s New Year’s resolutions

Around the crisis in 180 days

A permanent state of emergency

What will Alberto Fernandez do in his first 100 days?

Alberto’s dilemma: Is this 2001 or 2003?

The risks of fragmented polarisation

Welcome back, ‘la grieta.’ We didn’t miss you.

Can Alberto’s tightrope act work?

The day after tomorrow

Do Argentina’s candidates care about the wider world around them?

A non-debate for a non-campaign

Yes, we can. But can we?

The IMF jumps ship – Argentina is officially on its own

A campaign without much to promise

Macri and Fernández have good reason to cooperate

Argentina becomes a bundle of nerves

Macri should drop out of the presidential campaign

Transition in recession: it’s all about cash

Argentina – and Alberto – need Macri to survive

Three lessons from the PASOs

The yelling stops as voters provide an X-ray of Argentina

Is it (still) the economy, stupid?

Argentina’s election campaign runs into an economic vacuum

The master translator of reality

De la Rúa’s lessons for Macri (and others)

Government sells the future, opposition stuck in present

Hushed dollar feeds Macri’s optimistic bias

Electoral slates in, time to go to the shrink

Can Pichetto deliver what the establishment believes he can?

Can Macri deliver a stable currency through to the elections?

Never underestimate a ruling party

If the Radicals can make Macri less radical...

Polarisation bends, but does not break

Consensus will not come in the post

Is Argentina on the road to a governability crisis?

No, Vidal cannot cast a magic spell for Macri

Can the art of the message save Macri?

Will Macri sell his soul for a handful of votes?

Cristina Fernández de Kirchner holds the key to a Macri defeat

‘You are going to lose the elections, Mauricio’

Losing trust: How far will Argentina 2020 be from Argentina 2001?

Have Argentina’s political poles started to melt?

Come odour and spill: Don’t blame it on D’Alessio and Stiusso

Is this angry Macri the president Argentines voted for?

Radical bravado: a sign that Cambiemos is not a ruling coalition