News of Marcelo J. García

Marcelo J. García

Political analyst and Director for the Americas for the Horizon Engage political risk consultancy firm.

Milei, in the best of all possible worlds

16-11-2024 05:00 Everywhere he looks, Javier Milei sees good news, which he takes as confirmation that he has chosen the right path.

by Marcelo J. García

ANALYSING ARGENTINA

Welcome to the New Political Order

09-11-2024 06:01 Trump’s victory and the Brexit referendum in 2016 marked the first significant political manifestations of a change of order. Trump’s impressive comeback this week appears to solidify it further. The next question is where President Javier Milei fits into this puzzle.

by Marcelo J. García

Analysing Argentina

Milei’s magical thinking about a Trump victory

02-11-2024 07:38 Argentina — or Latin America, for that matter — will not be an immediate priority for any incoming US administration, though Milei may leverage his ideological rapport with a potential President Trump.

by Marcelo J. García

ANALYSING ARGENTINA

The Caputos spread their tentacles over the Mileis

26-10-2024 05:37 Not so long ago, two Caputos in Milei's inner circle seemed one too many. But now, Santiago and Luis Caputo are working closely in tandem.

by Marcelo J. García

ANALYSING ARGENTINA

Milei the Great or Milei the Footnote?

19-10-2024 06:44 The problems Argentina faces are too big and too enduring for anyone to solve alone, especially when alienating much of the rest of the world.

by Marcelo J. García

Analysing Argentina

Milei’s deserved but premature celebration

12-10-2024 06:09 If two highly sensitive issues like pensions and universities fail to gather the two-thirds majority needed to overturn vetoes, President Milei can rest assured that his executive powers will remain intact for another year.

by Marcelo J. García

Cristina Fernández de Kirchner: on the verge of a comeback?

ANALYSING ARGENTINA

Will Cristina Fernández de Kirchner attempt a comeback?

05-10-2024 06:21 As Otto von Bismarck famously said, “politics is the art of the possible.”

by Marcelo J. García

ANALYSING ARGENTINA

No future for Milei

28-09-2024 06:33 President Milei’s first speech at the UN General Assembly was the latest example of the many fruitless symbolic battles that Argentina’s 21st-century Don Quixote chooses to fight to feed his foundational ego trip.

by Marcelo J. García

ANALYSING ARGENTINA

Milei’s Bermuda Triangle

21-09-2024 06:31 Milei’s political future lies within a triangle defined by inflation, approval ratings, and unemployment.

by Marcelo J. García

ANALYSING ARGENTINA

Javier Milei in the real world of the Lilliputians

14-09-2024 05:51 There may be nothing more “caste” than a group of deputies who vote one way one day and another way a few weeks later. But Milei knows that some elements of the caste are more useful than others, depending on which side of the political equation they fall.

by Marcelo J. García

ANALYSING ARGENTINA

Decisions Milei refuses to make

07-09-2024 05:52 Milei will eventually pay the political price for the decisions he fails to make today. His current popularity, buoyed by the perception that recession is the lesser evil compared to rampant inflation, won’t last forever.

by Marcelo J. García

ANALYSING ARGENTINA

Milei fighting with himself

17-08-2024 06:40 The scandal surrounding former president Alberto Fernández and his ex-partner, former first lady Fabiola Yáñez, seems to confirm Milei’s campaign truism that the country’s politicians were not only inept but also morally bankrupt.

by Marcelo J. García

ANALYSING ARGENTINA

Milei’s mirror: Ireland or Nigeria?

10-08-2024 05:37 The RIGI scheme places Argentina closer to a category that experts call an enclave economy, one in which some sectors boom but the larger public is not necessarily attached to the benefits.

by Marcelo J. García

ANALYSING ARGENTINA

A tale of two economists

03-08-2024 14:08 The name RIGI is notably similar to the LNG bill sponsored by the Peronists last year: Regime for Major Investment Incentives.

by Marcelo J. García

Javier Milei, Karina Milei and Victoria Villaruel.

ANALYSING ARGENTINA

International media dig into the B-side of the Milei promise

27-07-2024 14:27 Little by little, the news about Argentina in the world’s business capitals is becoming less shiny than it was a few months ago.

by Marcelo J. García

ANALYSING ARGENTINA

Milei’s useless fight against gravity

23-07-2024 15:05 Milei has two economic jobs: lowering inflation and getting the economy going. So far, he is halfway through the first goal and nowhere with the second. All eyes are on Economy Minister Luis Caputo, whose job will be on the line if this latest scheme fails.

by Marcelo J. García

ANALYSING ARGENTINA

What if Milei is wrong about the economy?

13-07-2024 07:50 Hard currency is the Achilles’ heel of the Milei programme, as it was for his predecessors in office.

by Marcelo J. García

Analysing Argentina

Milei now needs to fly domestic

06-07-2024 05:31 Provincial governors are getting Milei’s message: that they are largely on their own now and need to adapt.

by Marcelo J. García

ANALYSING ARGENTINA

Milei, Messi, and how to be the best in the world

29-06-2024 04:16 Milei continues to claim that his ministers are “the best ever.” Until they are not, as his former friend and Cabinet Chief Nicolás Posse can attest.

by Marcelo J. García

ANALYSING ARGENTINA

Milei’s future: back to the past?

22-06-2024 05:01 While it is crucial for the government to attract investments from various sources, the nature of the country’s insertion in the global economy will depend on Milei’s alliances.

by Marcelo J. García

ANALYSING ARGENTINA

Milei at a turning point

15-06-2024 06:34 At this point, six months into office, Milei knows he needs to get something out of Congress, no matter exactly what that “something” is. Progress, not perfection.

by Marcelo J. García

Analysing Argentina

Re-election for Milei will require recalibration

08-06-2024 05:56 Investors, domestic and abroad, continue to have hopes that Milei will deliver … They are suddenly seeing red flags everywhere.

by Marcelo J. García

ANALYSING ARGENTINA

What if Milei has no clothes on?

01-06-2024 05:03 Milei’s economic programme does not have the luxury of letting the flame of hope die out.

by Marcelo J. García

ANALYSING ARGENTINA

Gulliver Milei needs to engage with the Lilliputians

25-05-2024 06:23 Even the Lilliputians in Jonathan Swift’s 'Gulliver’s Travels' were clever enough to feed their giant alien visitor before using him for their own advantage.

by Marcelo J. García

ANALYSING ARGENTINA

RIGI and the ‘frack, baby, frack’ consensus

18-05-2024 06:15 Argentina is not alone in the region in debating what to do with its resources or how the market and the government should engage with one another.

by Marcelo J. García

ANALYSING ARGENTINA

Elon Musk meets José Mayans

11-05-2024 06:27 RIGI is the most beneficial regime ever created in the country for foreign investors and it is causing a divide among foreign and local businesses.

by Marcelo J. García

Analysing Argentina

The dawn of a new Milei?

04-05-2024 05:40 Javier Milei has come to terms with the idea that he cannot continue to go it alone with his reform programme

by Marcelo J. García

Analysing Argentina

Five dogs and a million reds

27-04-2024 05:43 The government puts itself at risk by acting as if everything the President says is true, while Milei runs the risk of believing everything he sees on his social media feed.

by Marcelo J. García

Analysing Argentina

Is Milei feeling the fear?

20-04-2024 06:45 Milei’s government needs to pass legislation, something it has not been able to do in its first four-and-a-half months in office. Congressional approval would be an indication to Argentines and foreign observers alike that he means business.

by Marcelo J. García

Analysing Argentina

Why Javier Milei needs to be a bit like Néstor Kirchner

13-04-2024 05:40 Even though he may hate the sound of it, the lessons of the Kirchner dynasty – whose political fadeout is largely responsible for Milei’s meteoric rise to power – could help the President.

by Marcelo J. García

Analysing Argentina

Is President Milei growing in stature?

06-04-2024 06:39 Argentina’s president is exercising power fully, even as he continues to learn how the dynamics of it works.

by Marcelo J. García

ANALYSING ARGENTINA

Who wants to ‘exploit’ Argentina?

30-03-2024 06:43 The business establishment, here and abroad, are keeping a close eye on whether Milei and his team can deliver on governance – and whether they can do it soon.

by Marcelo J. García

Analysing Argentina

Another 100 days of solitude?

23-03-2024 06:30 If Javier Milei insists on tragedy, he might kill Argentina’s democracy – or vice-versa. He does not need to.

by Marcelo J. García

ANALYSING ARGENTINA

Pax cambiaria, pax mafiosa?

16-03-2024 06:45 Inflation and crime are at the top of President Javier Milei’s agenda. Both will test his libertarian approach to problem-solving.

by Marcelo J. García

ANALYSING ARGENTINA

The elusive goal Milei needs to score

09-03-2024 06:14 Javier Milei's government knows that should the president’s popularity sink further, his power to impose reform on “the caste” would wane significantly.

by Marcelo J. García

Luis Caputo, Santiago Caputo, Javier Milei.

ANALYSING ARGENTINA

Are two Caputos one too many for Milei?

02-03-2024 05:25 Foreign observers and investors welcome that Milei is a man on a mission to turn Argentina into a more open, more pro-market economy … but they don’t like conflict as the end itself, nor the Casa Rosada’s unwillingness to compromise.

by Marcelo J. García

Most of the burden now falls on the office of Economy Minister Martín Guzmán, whom the president has given exclusive faculties in his economic Cabinet to lead – and speak in public about – the debt issue.

NEW ERA IN ARGENTINA

Eight weeks that will settle the next four years

01-02-2020 08:50 Argentina’s leadership finds common ground when it seems to be too late, arguably without noticing that crisis arrives after an earlier lack of accord, guided by automatic bickering.

by Marcelo J. García

The Fernández government wants to get along well with Washington, but without an automatic alliance.

NEW ERA IN ARGENTINA

Back to the (Western) World

25-01-2020 11:34 At policy level the administration is seeking to cultivate ties with the US on the issues that Trump White House most cares about.

by Marcelo J. García

Unlike his two non-Italian predecessors, John Paul II and Benedict, who rushed to go back home in the first year of their papacy, Francis has not set foot on Argentina. Why hasn’t he? And will he?

NEW ERA IN ARGENTINA

Will Alberto bring Francis back home?

18-01-2020 12:40 The Pope wields considerable influence over many local leaders, most notably on social movements who represent the unemployed and are connected with grassroots Catholic priests.

by Marcelo J. García

The president has decided to give a little “Robin Hood” lustre to his first few weeks in office.

NEW ERA IN ARGENTINA

Alberto’s ‘Robin Hood’ approach offers clues for the future

11-01-2020 10:16 On debt, the government hopes to get a grace period of four years in an ideal scenario, but given the ambiguous willingness that IMF staffers and creditors seem to be showing, it is likely to get closer to two – if things go relatively well.

by Marcelo J. García

This week, the president gave two lengthy radio interviews in which he used his public word to establish the political terrain for his leadership.

NEW ERA IN ARGENTINA

Building a centre by sheer force of word

04-01-2020 09:23 A president should craft his words carefully and use them with conscious moderation, knowing that any word that comes out of a head of state’s mouth is virtually seen as policy.

by Marcelo J. García

The president likely starts his first calendar year at the country’s highest political chair with a wishlist of things he would like to achieve.

2020: THE YEAR AHEAD

Alberto’s New Year’s resolutions

28-12-2019 09:56 What exactly is on Alberto Fernández’s New Year’s resolution list for 2020?

by Marcelo J. García

Once the new bill is published in the Boletín Oficial, the government will have 180 days to, for instance, revise contracts and rates in the politically sensitive gas and electricity sectors.

NEW ERA IN ARGENTINA

Around the crisis in 180 days

21-12-2019 10:49 With extra powers and an economic Cabinet that politically responds to his directives, the president would be able to claim the credit of success – but he would also have to pay the full price of failure.

by Marcelo J. García

The news is that this is no news at all. Argentina was officially declared in an emergency after the 2001 debt default.

ARGENTINA'S NEW ERA

A permanent state of emergency

14-12-2019 10:40 Guzmán’s unexpected appointment at the helm of the hot-potato ministry strikes a delicate balance between the economic views of the president and those of the vicepresident, Cristina Fernández de Kirchner.

by Marcelo J. García

Fernández has given some signals about what he wants to do with the country’s debt: kick payment as far ahead down the road as possible in order to give Argentina time to grow again.

TRANSITION 2019

What will Alberto Fernandez do in his first 100 days?

07-12-2019 10:21 Three days out from his inauguration and following the announcement of his Cabinet yesterday, Alberto Fernández can now look ahead to his first 100 days in office, which will have one main driver: averting a debt default.

by Marcelo J. García

So far, Fernández seems to be acting on the assumption that most of the things he’ll face resemble those he faced before.

TRANSITION 2019

Alberto’s dilemma: Is this 2001 or 2003?

30-11-2019 09:37 The line is classic 2003. Néstor would tell anybody who would listen back then that “dead debtors don’t pay,” in what was a neat strategy to negotiate better terms for the country’s defaulted situation.

by Marcelo J. García

Argentina will soon be entering its third year of recession. The economy contracted 1.6 percent in 2018, will shrink a further 3.2 percent in 2019 and is likely to contract at least an extra 1.9 percent in 2020.

TRANSITION 2019

The risks of fragmented polarisation

16-11-2019 09:33 Depending on how the economy features in the coming months and how the coalitions manage to sustain complex internal balances, polarisation could soon crack into fragmentation, with unpredictable political consequences.

by Marcelo J. García

The political schism that has popularly become known here as ’la grieta’ is back (if it was ever gone) and yes, here to stay.

ELECTION 2019

Welcome back, ‘la grieta.’ We didn’t miss you.

09-11-2019 10:49 The blame game will only deepen the crack that divides the political aisles.

by Marcelo J. García

On show was an unprecedented Peronist coalition of at least three factions, with loyalties and alliances seemingly ready to mutate, depending on random circumstances.

CAMPAIGN WATCH

Can Alberto’s tightrope act work?

02-11-2019 11:27 The president-elect will be walking a tightrope between convincing suspicious markets and making good on at least some of his promises to voters.

by Marcelo J. García

The 2019 transition is more dramatic than symbols can get.

CAMPAIGN WATCH

The day after tomorrow

26-10-2019 11:42 A storm is brewing again in Argentina and the leadership are not getting the public ready for it.

by Marcelo J. García