Donald Trump’s return to the White House seems to have pushed the world off its axis, even though it was a clearly plausible scenario ahead of the presidential election in the United States. Both inside the North American superpower and across the wider world, there’s a feeling that every single one of Trump’s executive orders and threats will have long-lasting effects that could derail the current world order, which in most cases means the consequences are perceived as negative.
Among those who ideologically identify themselves as close to the “new right,” Trump’s victory elicits a feeling of euphoria as the “culture wars” v “wokeism” battle returns to the centre of the political debate. Javier Milei is among those who are ecstatic with the current course of global affairs. As Argentina’s President, he can congratulate himself on the early endorsement of his colleague when his chances of electoral victory weren’t as certain. His “automatic alignment” with Washington’s new policies allows the self-described “anarcho-capitalist” libertarian to show that his chemistry with Trump, billionaire Elon Musk, Italian premier Giorgia Meloni and the rest of the gang is more important than underlying ideology, particularly on the economic front.
For now, the benefits appear greater than the drawbacks, particularly if Trump 2.0 acts like Trump 1.0 in pushing the International Monetary Fund to offer Argentina favourable terms in ongoing negotiations over a fresh financing programme. Yet, there could be consequences for those importing US cultural battles to Argentina, as last weekend’s “anti-fascist” and “anti-racist” Pride March shows. Indeed, the response to Milei’s speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos, where he ripped a page from Trump’s playbook and doubled down on anti-wokeism, rather than keeping to his usual economics-focused agenda, generated a level of rejection that forced him to tone it down and explain himself. Much like during last year’s marches in defence of public education and state universities, the President felt the blow but he will probably recover momentum quickly.
Much like the Looney Tunes’ Tasmanian Devil, the Trump whirlwind seems to be destroying everything in its path. The early days of his second presidency seem to be marked by a nervous necessity to get as much done as quickly as he can. He counts on his previous experience of four years in office and the capacity to build a team that should be much more efficient. Trump also enjoys majorities in both chambers of Congress and a favourable Supreme Court. POTUS has fully impacted on the prevailing world order by starting major trade wars with allies and enemies alike, beginning major deportations of mainly Latin American immigrants and proposed the reversal of several major issues that had become global policy agreements, including the Paris Climate Accord and even the relevance of the World Health Organization. Regarding the conflict in the Middle East between Israel and the Arab world, Trump went so far as to say the United States would actively take control of the area, relocate Palestinians to “beautiful communities” abroad, and develop the real estate in Gaza to make it the “Riviera of the Middle East.” It’s difficult to determine when Trump is actually laying out a policy goal or just using his public statements as bargaining chips in his negotiations. What does seem clearer is that through his actions he’s pushing “economic autarchy” and the “destruction of the Western Alliance,” as Financial Times journalist Gideon Rachman explained. His colleague, Martin Wolff, adds that not only is the trade war economically stupid, but it also generates unpredictability for the global superpower that weakens its position as a key ally, forcing other countries to look elsewhere for future pacts and agreements.
For Milei, there’s nothing but joy from what Trump’s doing. It doesn’t seem to bother the anarcho-capitalist economist that the Republican’s protectionist and anti-globalist stance is theoretically antagonistic with his vision of a libertarian wonderland. From a political standpoint, Milei and Trump are brothers-in-arms, meaning the Argentine can only benefit from the culture wars being waged by his buddy up North. By aligning himself with Trump’s agenda, Milei is looking to increase his own impact, both domestically and abroad. While Argentina’s President has always opposed “cultural Marxism,” he’s now fully absorbed the Trumpian version of anti-wokeism.
One of the risks of importing the United States’ cultural agenda to Argentina is that he can alienate electorates that could have supported him in the upcoming midterm elections. Much like when he spoke about selling children or opening the market for selling organs, Milei sparked the ire of his critics, in this case the LGBT+ community, which in turn allowed a larger group opposed to him to bundle together and express their discontent in the streets. A similar situation occurred when the masses mobilised in favour of public education. In both cases Milei was forced to backtrack and try to explain why he had been misinterpreted by the media that were looking to hurt him politically. As his communications team, led by Santiago Caputo, knows quite well, it doesn’t really matter what you meant to say, only what your audience received as the message. Milei has also ordered his Health Minister, Mario Lugones, to explain why he wishes to pull out of the World Health Organization, while indicating that he is considering pulling Argentina from the Paris Climate Agreement. In both cases he’s imitating the Trump administration, and potentially moving before they do, even before it can be seen whether he’s bluffing or not.
One possible explanation, beyond political proximity, has to do with practical reasons. The International Monetary Fund, which is ultimately controlled by the White House, is currently Argentina’s largest creditor. As revealed by The Donald’s top official for Latin America, Mauricio Claver-Carone, the Trump administration pushed the IMF to hand over a record bailout to Mauricio Macri in 2018 in part to try to prevent the return of Cristina Fernández de Kirchner to power. Claver-Carone, who has been named special envoy to the region, was at the time Washington’s appointee to the IMF. Now, Milei and Economy Minister Luis ‘Toto’ Caputo — who was involved in orchestrating the original loan during the Macri administration — are looking to Washington to help them secure fresh funds while cutting them some slack on lifting currency controls (i.e. “cepo”) during an electoral year. Milei’s popularity is in great part tied to the economy continuing on a path toward normalisation, which means lower inflation and potentially a rebound. A sudden surge in inflation would therefore be destructive, meaning that they must defend their “strong peso” policy at all costs.
Pegging Argentina’s foreign policy to the United States is a risky strategy. Beyond the anti-woke agenda, Washington’s leading geopolitical adversary is China, which is one of Argentina’s most important trading partners. There’s also the risk of “importing” cultural battles that create further divisiveness. But the benefit of an extra push at the IMF board meeting, together with the political affinity between Milei and Trump, appear irresistible. For now, being a copy-cat seems like the best plan.
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