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OPINION AND ANALYSIS | 07-09-2024 05:52

Decisions Milei refuses to make

Milei will eventually pay the political price for the decisions he fails to make today. His current popularity, buoyed by the perception that recession is the lesser evil compared to rampant inflation, won’t last forever.

In less than nine months in office, President Javier Milei made 13 trips abroad, costing some 2.3 billion pesos. On one of those trips, to Texas in April, during which he met with Elon Musk, he announced his breakup with girlfriend Fátima Flórez, whom he had started dating during last year’s presidential campaign. He cited travel as one of the reasons for the split: they were apart too often.

Now, Milei is embarking on a new relationship, this time with showbiz personality Amalia ‘Yuyito’ González, who is 10 years his senior. Rumours suggest they might even marry. Is Milei thinking of staying home more? It seems so, but not solely for personal reasons.

Early on in his administration, Milei delegated much of the political management of his government. A tacit division of labour saw his presidential chief-of-staff, sister Karina, and all-purpose advisor Santiago Caputo handling politics, including relations with Congress – assisted only by veteran politician Guillermo Francos, who initially served as Interior minister before being appointed Cabinet chief. However, after Congress dealt the President several significant defeats, including a few votes with two-thirds majorities against him, he seems to have realised that leadership cannot be confined to social media; it also requires some face time.

This past week, Milei led his most active domestic agenda since taking office. He met with congressional leaders of the small parties supporting him in Congress, convened a new political action committee for his La Libertad Avanza party, signed a transport subsidy agreement with Buenos Aires City Mayor Jorge Macri and visited the Buenos Aires offices of web retail giant Mercado Libre, whose founder Marcos Galperín is a fan of his – similar to Musk.

In July, we noted that Milei needed to “fly a little more domestic,” but perhaps now he needs to walk rather than fly – his government faces pivotal decisions ahead.

The most critical one is whether Milei will act like Milei or like Sergio Massa, the opponent he defeated in the November presidential second round. When Massa became economy minister in August 2022, in the middle of a political crisis triggered by Martín Guzmán’s resignation, he had to choose between devaluing the peso or holding on to the few reserves available in order to survive until the presidential election, which was at that time still more than a year away. Massa wanted to do the former but chose the latter for political reasons related to the dysfunctional Frente de Todos governing coalition. He eventually clinched his party’s nomination – but he lost to Milei.

Today, Argentina’s President is now looking toward the October 2025 midterms, which he must win. By the time the nation votes, just over a year and a couple of months away from now, he aims to have proven his ability to tame the nation’s chronic inflation problem. Milei doesn’t seem overly concerned with the cost: the recession drags on, and the strategy he and Economy Minister Luis Caputo are adopting, of keeping the US dollar’s price artificially low through intervention in the parallel market, diverges sharply from libertarian orthodoxy.

A second major decision facing the President is whether his government will be remembered as honest or corrupt. Milei campaigned on an anti-elite platform, positioning himself as an outsider determined to end privilege. The public has not yet scrutinised the finer details of how his government operates, but they will do so eventually, especially if the economic results fall short of expectations.

The figure emblematic of this transparency issue is Santiago Caputo. Though officially just an external advisor, with no formal responsibilities beyond advising Milei, Caputo has accumulated considerable influence. Even if he were the most honourable man alive, the unchecked power he wields – to the point that Supreme Court nominee Manuel García-Mansilla testified during his Senate confirmation hearing that it was Caputo who offered him the position – raises valid suspicions. 

We previously suggested that two Caputos might be one too many in Milei’s government. It’s now clear which of the two poses the bigger problem.

Milei will eventually pay the political price for the decisions he fails to make today. His current popularity, buoyed by the perception that recession is the lesser evil compared to rampant inflation, won’t last forever. When the reckoning comes, it may be too late. More time at home should help him make the tough choices ahead.

Marcelo J. Garcia

Marcelo J. Garcia

Political analyst and Director for the Americas for the Horizon Engage political risk consultancy firm.

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