Brazil’s second MAGA moment

While the decisive leg of the election is still to be run, the results of the presidential election in Brazil between Luiz Inacio Lula Da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro last weekend have created deep ripple effects that will have lasting impact. If Bolsonaro ultimately wins in the run-off scheduled for October 25, a true “blue wave” of right-wing presidents will have swept across Latin America; if he doesn’t, the make-up of the Brazilian Congress and the distribution of governors across the largest and most important country in the region will heavily favour the Partido Liberal (PL) leader and deliver momentum to its agenda, with the impeachment of Supreme Court Justice Alexandre De Moraes and an official pardon for his father, ex-president Jair Bolsonaro, at the top of that list. It will also mark the consolidation of a new hegemony, built in the image of US President Donald Trump and his MAGA movement. President Javier Milei is the most prominent expression of it in the Southern Hemisphere, yet Brazil is the ultimate prize.

The election was tight. Bolsonaro topped Lula by 1.87 percentage points, the slimmest margin in history. The final tally came in at 47.03 percent for Flávio (the firstborn of former president Jair who remains under house arrest after an attempted coup in 2023), compared to 45.16 percent for the sitting president, who is seeking his fourth term in office. Some 33 million Brazilians didn’t vote last Sunday, a 21.08 percent abstention rate. Right-wing parties secured 59 percent of the Chamber of Deputies and 43 of 81 Senators, giving it a strengthened position in Congress, and five governorships outright for Bolsonaro’s party. In São Paulo, Tarcisio de Freitas crushed Fernando Haddad of Lula’s PT, 62.65 percent to 36.42 percent, in favour of the incumbent right-wing governor.

Flavio has received the endorsement of several parties, including Ronaldo Caiado of the Partido Social Democrático (PSD), who took 2.18 percent of the vote in the first round. The third-place finisher, Augusto Curry (2.89 percent) has indicated he will not take sides, while Renan Santos (2.24 percent) appears to be politically on the right but has campaigned on disillusionment with the Bolsonaros clan. Lula will bank on trying to increase the turnout in order to overturn his loss of support compared to the 2022 election.

While in Argentina we generally analyse the rise and consolidation of the Milei phenomenon as a reaction to never-ending economic decrepitude, results in Brazil indicate that the electoral appeal of the “new-right” is not strictly ideological and economic, but more of an aesthetic. Founded by Trump in the United States, the anti-system, anti-woke crusader of the “culture wars” is an international phenomenon. Indeed, Jair Bolsonaro was probably the second chronologically and in importance, given the geopolitical significance of Brazil. He followed in Trump’s footsteps by refusing to accept an electoral defeat at the hands of the historic “lefties” (Lula), and then attempted to launch a coup d’état. Given that Jair is effectively barred from holding office, he’s managed to transpose his votes onto his less charismatic son and they may succeed in making it to the Planalto Presidential Palace in Brasília.

There is no doubt that Milei has perfected the MAGA art in his own way. He added elements including the chainsaw, the “caste,” the lion and the “heavenly forces,” extremely seductive branding from an electoral standpoint. Total submission to MAGA and alignment with the United States in terms of foreign policy have granted Milei a direct line to POTUS, who has had no qualms in intervening in other countries’ domestic politics and internal electoral processes. In Argentina, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent offered Milei a US$20-billion bailout at the toughest moment of the campaign last year and both he and Trump have made it clear that support is off the table if Milei is kicked out. In Brazil, Trump has confronted Lula directly, imposing tariffs on the country, sanctioning Supreme Court Justice De Moraes, and receiving Flávio in the Oval Office. The Bolsonaro campaign has also added elements of Milei’s iconography and rhetoric, staying a rally with the Argentine President in July at Pacaembu stadium in São Paulo to formally launch Flávio’s presidential campaign. MAGA is an international movement and Milei is one of its “rockstar” ambassadors.

The regional transformation is incomplete without Brazil. South America has truly turned to the right politically in a move that mirrors the “pink tide” of the early 2000s. Back then, Hugo Chávez in Venezuela, Néstor Kirchner and Cristina Fernández Kirchner in Argentina, Evo Morales in Bolivia, Rafael Correa in Ecuador and Lula in Brazil led the region into so-called “21st-century socialism.” Fuelled by the commodities supercycle powered by Chinese demand, the “pink tide” lasted more than a decade and a half, creating hegemonic power and deeply transforming the socio-political and economic fabric of the continent. It collapsed under its own weight as the hangover that came after the 2007-2008 global financial crisis put an end to China’s insatiable appetite for South American commodities, together with a change in global financial conditions. The economic miracles began to fuel inflationary concerns, declining productivity and led to economic stagnation. Slowly but surely, the leaders of the pink tide fell, with Nicolás Maduro holding onto Venezuela only through authoritarianism (he was ultimately deposed by Trump earlier this year). Lula, after his return to power, was the only one to make it into a third decade in charge of his country’s government – Cristina was forced to pick Alberto Fernández as her presidential candidate given her impossible rejection rates.

The pink tide also had its aesthetics, which were rooted in deep anti-US sentiment and a total rejection of the so-called “carnal relations” of the 1990s. South American leaders bundled together and built bridges with Russia’s Vladimir Putin and China, at the time led by Hu Jintao. Cuba was a key ally, and even Iran was relatively close. Domestically, the governments went on a deficit spending rampage and pushed progressive socio-political agendas. Corruption became widespread and scandals broke out, in great part fuelling social discontent and helping to swing the pendulum back the other way.

Among the aesthetic characteristics of the “new right” is a total lack of consideration for the protocols and rules of high office. Foul language and insults are blurted out over social media, together with the use of memes and half-truths, stalwarts that are here to stay. A return to political incorrectness as a response to decades of hypocritical good manners has become attractive electorally to societies who are tired of seeing their leaders fill their mouths with empty promises of welfare gains. Beyond a rejection of socialism, there is no common economic ideology, with Milei ascribing to the Austrian School while Trump pursues “America First” protectionism. MAGA’s true legacy will be the instilling anti-woke “culture wars” that reject the concepts of social justice, affirmative action and progressive values. The idea that classical Western values are superior and immigrants are a threat are particularly effective concepts as well.

Many of these metamorphoses will leave a long-lasting effect on the region’s socio-politics. The technological adoption of smartphones connected to the Internet with access to social media first, and artificial intelligence (which Trump insists on calling super intelligence) second is also forming the way people think and vote. In the same way as Barack Obama’s successful campaigns successfully ushered in the era of digital strategy, Trump, Bolsonaro, Milei, and the rest of them have turned that strategy on its head to build their political capital off of their “synthetic power” (a concept explained in previous columns). Right-wing populism isn’t new, but it has found its steroids with social media. And others will copy their methods, with “lefty Mileis” soon to be emerging throughout. Back in Brazil, Lula can still win, sure, but the wider change is irreversible.